Red Sox Outlook: Starting Rotation

Last September's horrendous collapse is still the taste lingering in most Red Sox fans' mouths. I understand. It's a tough one to shake off. But try to gather yourself and look at the positives. In my series of Red Sox outlooks, I'll try to look at the bright side as we approach that beloved Opening Day once again.

Everyone knows who Boston's top three gunners are. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz — in no particular order — will be called upon to lead the Sox rotation into the fire in 2012. There may be some minor question marks within that group of three, but the major question marks (followed by exclamation points) rest in the fourth and fifth slots of the starting rotation.

Daniel Bard is expected — well, the Red Sox are hoping, at least — to succeed as the No. 4 starter. Bard has been dominant for stretches of his brief career in Boston thus far, but his entire tenure has been spent as a setup man to the departed Jonathan Papelbon, who dons the white and red of the Philadelphia Phillies. Bard — a 26-year-old fireballer who is now being called upon to open the door to his prime — is being converted to a starting pitcher this preseason.

For me, there are two main questions about Bard's transition to the starting role. The first of those two questions will be his stamina — how long can he sustain his stellar velocity? Will he be losing gas from his fastball by the fifth and sixth innings? Can a guy who has always come in for an inning or two be successful going eight, nine frames in an exceptional performance? That will be one of the big questions for Bard. Assuming he can maintain that velocity deep into outings, there remains a second concern — his repertoire. Does he have enough pitches to be effective on the second and third trips through an opposing lineup? In the past, Bard has been able to rely on his fastball and the occasional slider to ring up batter after batter. But if he is unable to fine-tune his change-up and effectively mix up his pitches, will hitters adjust on their second and third attempts?

The fifth starter is an even bigger question than the fourth. Will it be Felix Doubront? Alfredo Aceves? Andrew Miller? All of those guys showed promise last season, but Aceves may be best suited to assume the role. Can Daisuke Matsuzaka return to form and be effective? There's no telling the answers to these questions just yet, but there is always optimism.

I will say this. If these pitchers — the aforementioned top four, in particular — can pitch close to their capability, then Boston can experience a pretty special season. I'll discuss the full package in a later outlook, complete with predictions for their win totals and more. But we have seen what these guys are capable of. Lester and Buchholz have each thrown no-hitters. Both of them were Cy Young contenders in the middle of last season. Beckett and Bard have each displayed periods of dominance and periods of weakness. If dominance can prevail, the sky is the limit for this pitching staff.

There may be uncertainty, but don't look at it in such a bad light. Uncertainty means just that — you are uncertain. It could be bad. It could be good. Never forget the positive side of uncertainty. It just might be good, after all. Opening Day will be here before we know it.