Bookie Tips — Saturday College Football Locks

As another beautiful Saturday full of college football heads our way, why don't we take a look at some ways to earn the extra dollar of beer money this weekend? If you're a gambling man, these picks should be right up your alley. You may not trust me yet, but I'm hoping you will after today's slate of games.

Kansas State (-7) over Miami

Being a Boston College superfan, I saw the Miami attack first-hand last weekend. Let me tell you this — it was nothing impressive. Yes, they put up 41 points in Chestnut Hill, but BC gift-wrapped the game for them. It was a very standard and predictable attack from the Hurricanes, and the Eagles just couldn't make tackles or protect the football. It was as simple as that. Against a much better KSU squad, the U finds itself back to .500. Book it.

Auburn (+3) over Mississippi State

Against one of the most talented teams in the nation last week, Auburn hung around and lost a tight game. Mississippi State is no Clemson. This game will be close, and SEC battles are always grinders. But Auburn doesn't drop to 0-2 today. Quarterback Kiehl Frazier had very shaky numbers in the opener against Clemson — 11-for-27 (40.7 percent) for 194 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Despite the poor performance, Auburn was in the game. The Tigers get their mojo back today.

Clemson (-28) over Ball State

I was just raving about how good this Clemson team is, and it wasn't just to justify the Auburn pick. This team is for real. They're headed for what I see as an easy road to the ACC Championship game, one which my money would already be on the Tigers to win. They're mega-talented and headed back to their home field for this game — a field they went 7-0 on last year before getting blown out in the Orange Bowl to West Virginia. Those talented physical specimens will go to work for Clemson in an absolute rout of Ball State.

There's the wrap for this Saturday's slate of games. Pick any of these three — or, if you're feeling lucky, parlay them together — and you just might find yourself with some extra money to spend on beer and wings tomorrow for NFL action.

Goodbye, Red Sox. Hello, Red Sox.

When Ray Allen left the Boston Celtics this offseason, fans realized that there would be a change in the culture of the team. And when Tim Thomas told everyone to suck one, we all realized that a new era was beginning with Tuukka Rask at the helm for the Bruins.

But when it comes to culture changes and transformations, the 2012 Boston Red Sox put everyone else to shame.

General manager Ben Cherington put the finishing touches on a blockbuster deal between the Red Sox and Dodgers Saturday afternoon that shipped Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to Los Angeles and returned five players to Beantown.

It is the first trade in the history of Major League Baseball that involved multiple players with more than $100 million remaining on their contracts.

The reaction coming from Red Sox fans has been mixed. Some love it. Some hate it. Some are too shocked to know whether they should love it or hate it. Some stopped caring months ago and are just counting the days until the Patriots kick off against the Titans.

There are positives and negatives to come out of it, but one thing is for certain. The Red Sox that you watched yesterday are gone. Say goodbye. They're never coming back. The beer, the chicken, the 2007 championship and everything else that has come with the Red Sox during this recent stretch is gone, never to return.

What you'll see from this point forward is a new brand of the Boston Red Sox. They might as well change their uniforms and retouch their logo art. Say hello to the Red Sox.

I can't sit here and deny the fact that the Sox are now a weaker team. Adrian Gonzalez was a key part of this offense. It's tough to lose him. But let's break down these three guys and look at the pros and cons of their departures.

When it comes to Gonzalez, you're losing a guy who hits for an incredible average and drives in over 100 runs a season. His power isn't mind-blowing, but he's still a phenomenal hitter in the middle of the lineup. He's a gold-glove caliber first baseman, too. So, yes — a lot of value just went out the window. But what about his character? He's very business-like and professional. He's a class act. But in his brief tenure in Boston, Gonzalez failed to produce in clutch situations. He struggled with the pressure at times. He didn't display any leadership qualities, and he irritated many fans by saying it was God's plan to see the Red Sox collapse in September last season. Gonzo is a huge asset for a baseball team to lose, but I can't help but wonder whether or not he is a fitting cornerstone for this franchise moving forward. After all, with $130 million still owed to him, he certainly would have been the cornerstone.

Crawford and Beckett are a lot easier to cope with. The Sox bit the bullet on Gonzalez simply to get these players off their hands. Let's start with Crawford, the much less loathed of the two. It just didn't work for Crawford in Boston. He, too, couldn't handle the pressure of this city. Injuries didn't help him, I know. But for Crawford and Gonzalez both, I see situations that just sucked all around. The expectations were too high for Crawford — he was never worth $20 million a year. If Theo Epstein had inked him for $12 million a year over 5 years instead of $20 million a year over 7, we wouldn't even be having these talks.

But Josh Beckett is what makes the Red Sox winners in this trade. Beckett is the piece that needed to go. He's the one who solidified the uncoachable, uncontrollable clubhouse culture that developed over the last few years in Boston. He's the one who inspired the mindset — assumed by many of the guys around him, of course — that, in turn, inspires the rant I'm about to make regarding the disgraces of the old Red Sox team.

Who are you, as an MLB player, to go behind your manager's back and tell ownership he needs to go? What happened to the culture in sports that saw a manager being the boss of his players? The culture that saw the players putting the team before themselves? The desire to win over everything else? The entire way of life has changed in professional sports, and the Red Sox took it to the next level. These players feel like they're above the rest of the organization. They feel like they have the final authority. They feel entitled to way too much. This trade is the first step in setting that law straight. As a player, you're just one of the pieces on the game board. As management, the message is clear — we will have the final say in all matters. Hopefully Ben Cherington will continue to lay down the law and make his players aware that the team comes before their own personal interest.

And Johnny Pesky's funeral? The one that only four players — David Ortiz, Clay Buchholz, Vicente Padilla and Jarrod Saltalamacchia — managed to attend? That wasn't so important to everyone else. The bigger event on that day was Josh Beckett's charity event, where most of them went to party, have a good time and raise some money for charity. Ownership had busses and shuttles ready to take Boston's players to the funeral that morning. Four of them went to pay their respects to the great Johnny Pesky. Four of them. Four.

The attendance sheet couldn't even reach Pesky's retired number six. Hell, it couldn't even reach Nomar Garciaparra's old number five, but Nomar himself was able to fly in from across the country to honor the Sox legend. Unfortunately our beloved team couldn't make the trip from within the state.

It has been a frustrating year, and we'll have a clearer outlook when the dust settles this offseason. It may be a tough road back to success for the Red Sox. But if you want the honest truth, I'm not even demanding a championship right away.

All I want is for Red Sox baseball to return. I want to be proud of being a Red Sox fan. I want a team full of players who realize how special the Cathedral of Boston is with its monstrous green wall. I want a group of guys who love the game and love their team. I want players who consider their manager to be the boss, a boss that they would lay everything on the line for. I want players who want to be legends. Players who want to write a page in the Red Sox history book, and not a page stained with disgrace and failure.

The 86 years of failure were hard-fought years. The Red Sox and Yankees had a sizzling rivalry. Our talent was homegrown, and that homegrown system eventually churned out a championship.

If the championship comes, I'll be thrilled. But until then say hello to the Red Sox — hopefully a team full of youthful, energetic players that would give anything to give Red Sox Nation the world.

Lock To End All Locks — Celtics vs. Heat, Game 7

On Thursday night, I was hanging at Miller Ale House with Bobby Booze and some friends with the intention of watching the Celtics stomp out the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, earning themselves a ticket to the big stage and a date with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Instead, I saw LeBron James turn the jungle into his personal kitchen, roasting the Celtics all night in a heavy double-digit beat down.

With Game 7 looming ahead this evening near South Beach, there has never been a sports bet that I've felt more comfortable with. In fact, I've already thrown money on it myself, and I'm not much of a gambling man.

Boston (+7.5) is once again the heavy underdog. Everyone is counting them out in the aftermath of their horrid display in Game 6. But while they did play a terrible brand of basketball, the officiating did steer back to the Heat for stretches and gave the league exactly what it had missed out on in the West Finals — a scintillating seventh game.

Now that the seventh game is here, I believe the NBA will approach it in a pretty fair manner. They may not particularly care which team moves on — either way, the storylines will be captivating. Tonight, I expect the officiating to be almost even. There shouldn't be a blatant discrepancy as there has been (for both teams) in certain games of this series. When you add this factor to the existing facts — the experienced Boston Celtics have far more positive intangibles going for them in a Game 7 than "King" James — the following bet is an absolute lock to end all locks.

We're going to play a two-way, four-point teaser here. You sports gamblers know what it means. The Celtics are +7.5 tonight, and the over/under is 179. Take the Celtics in the over, adding in the four-point tease. Your final bet should be a two-team teaser, having CELTICS (+11.5) and OVER 175.

There's simply no chance of this Celtics team laying down and losing by 12 or more tonight. Have you watched them in these playoffs? Have you seen what they've done? Their backs have been against the wall and people have doubted them. They've had piss-poor performances and followed those up with brilliant ones. Even if they come up short in this seventh game — which, for the record, I don't believe they will — there's no way they get blown out again. It will be a dog fight, and 175 is a pretty easy number for the total score to get over. The payout is even on this bet, and it feels like highway robbery to me.

The NBA has nearly maximized their revenue from these conference finals. They did their dirty work in the first four games of each series — getting 2-2 starts and guaranteeing at least six games. Now, it's just a question of whether or not they have a preference for the finals matchup. And while everyone would marvel over LeBron-versus-Durant, there is also the idea to consider that the Boston sports market is a phenomenal market to give one last chance in the finals.

Either way, I think that the better team will win tonight's game. The reffing should not be the deciding factor. Will the Celtics' age hurt them, or will their experience get them over the top? I cannot say for sure that I know, but it seems downright silly to count them out. This group will fight to the end, and there's no way in hell they're losing another blowout this evening.

UPDATE — The NBA is so rigged that they already accidentally posted these shirts for sale in their online store. They promptly took it down, but Toucher and Rich got a screenshot of it first. Not so sure about this lock anymore since the league is so God damn rigged.
 

The NBA May Be Rigged, But Don't Count Celtics Out

The aging Boston Celtics are too old, the star-studded Miami Heat are too talented, the loss of Avery Bradley is too significant and the big three era will finally end, having gathered one banner to raise to the Garden rafters.

The big three era is over, but it isn't because of the Celtics being too incompetent, too injury-stricken, or too over-matched by a star-studded opponent. It's over because David Stern and the NBA are taking the necessary actions to finally put a ring on LeBron James's finger.

The above two perspectives are relatively common perspectives being taken right now in the midst of an Eastern Conference Finals series between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat. The first excuse — that the C's are too old, and that it's Miami who belongs in the NBA Finals — is the one which supporters of the NBA and non-Celtics fans may assume. The latter, though it comes across as desperate, is the one that most Celtics fans and some skeptics of the league will adopt.

I'll take a middle road between the different approaches that are out there. But let's get things straightened out right from the start — the NBA is rigged, and it would take a hell of an argument to convince me otherwise at this juncture.

Now, hold your horses for just a moment. Don't pounce on me with an argument revolving around the word "rigged." When I claim that the league is rigged, I simply mean that the guys upstairs (David Stern) have a significant influence on the outcomes of games in these playoffs. Does this mean that Stern picks Miami in 7 and plays it out as a fairy tale with predetermined game results? No, of course not. It simply means that the league has an agenda, and the referee crews are not only selected based on that agenda, but they are instructed to call the game a certain way to most closely match the course desired by the league.

In a nutshell, there are two basic criteria that cause the influence provided by the league. The league wants (1) a long series, especially in the conference finals, and (2) a certain team to advance, especially when one particular sports television market trumps another. I'll be the first to tell you that the Boston Celtics were sent to a finals rematch against the Los Angeles Lakers a few years ago because David Stern dreaded the idea of the Orlando Magic market being the horse representing the Eastern Conference.

In Game One of this year's series between Boston and Miami, the NBA didn't need to do much intervening. Miami outplayed Boston, and the league got the preferred — not the mandatory — outcome from that game. But let's not forget the three phantom technical fouls that were whistled on the C's, largely changing the complexion of that game. In basketball, an official can influence a game in a very subtle way while still having a very significant impact.

Game Two was the clincher for many people who suspected the theory of a rigged league. LeBron James shot 24 free throws, coming up just five attempts short of Boston's 29 as a team. Three Celtics — Paul Pierce, Mickael Pietrus and Keyon Dooling — fouled out of the game, importantly depriving Boston of their captain for the overtime period. Miami had no players foul out. And in that overtime period, Rajon Rondo was raked across the face by Dwyane Wade on a drive to the bucket. No foul was called, the Heat registered a dunk in transition as Rondo remained hobbled on the ground, and the rest was history.

Just like that — with some help from the refs — Miami staked itself to a 2-0 series lead heading back to Boston. But keep in mind the two criteria that I mentioned. The league doesn't just want a particular team to advance — they want a long series, one that sparks attention and increases revenue. The easiest thing in the world was predicting the outcome of Game Three in Boston.

Much like the West Finals, the higher seed took both of its home games. What happens to a series if the favorite goes up 3-0? Interest is lost. Nobody cares. The ratings for Game 4 fall to a much lower number, comprised mostly of fans from the two participating teams. The regular, impartial sports fans may be watching the Kings and Devils last night instead of the Spurs and Thunder if the Spurs had taken a commanding 3-0 lead. The league will make sure to avoid that development. Boom! Thunder tie the series at two a few nights later, and the interest in this series is outstanding.

And the league did just what I suspected they would for Game Three in Boston. For the first time this series, the Celtics shot more free throws than the Heat. The borderline calls were going Boston's way, not Miami's way. LeBron James had as many fouls in Game Three as he'd been given in the first two games combined. And suddenly, everyone is extremely intrigued by two series that may have seemed all but over a few days ago.

Sometimes I just have to give my long-winded rants about the rigged nature of the league. For that, I apologize. But before you get too upset about that simple truth, let me shed some positive light on the situation. A grain of optimism. The original assumption is that David Stern is finally giving LeBron a ring. It makes sense. The Heat are the team that spark the most interest, and LeBron has tried to get his first ring for a long time. It would generate storylines about the league, exactly the type of exposure they always want.

But have you considered that the desired story may be slightly different? The idea that both the Eastern and Western Conference finals are so eerily similar — a team with relatively young stars against a team with veteran, future hall-of-famers — is interesting. For the Celtics, everyone knows that this season may be their last chance in the big three era. Boston is a phenomenal sports market. Might David Stern want to send them to the big series one more time? Does he want to match up old versus young again with a Celtics-Thunder final? Does he go for the two optimum media markets available at this point by pairing the two veteran squads together with a cross-country, Boston-San Antonio final? We've already seen the league's effort to extend these two series, but we still don't know which teams they intend to send forward.

Despite all of the storylines that would be generated by LeBron finally winning a ring, there is still the other side of that equation — people love to see LeBron fail. It wouldn't exactly hurt the NBA to see James miss out for one more year. After all, it's probably their last chance for a few years to get Boston onto the league's biggest stage.

If Miami wins the next two games and takes the series in five, then I'll be slapped with a little bit of doubt. But until something like that happens, I'm sticking to my guns. The league is rigged — in other words, David Stern has a heavy influence (not total control) on each outcome —and we can't change it. But the Celtics can shoot the lights out, make the job tough on the league, and hopefully help to force their hand. Maybe the league wants us anyway. Nobody really knows. I'll still watch the games, even though I'm aware that it isn't pure. Because like I said before, it isn't fake, either.

If Kevin Garnett has anything to say about it, this series will be a dog fight until the end. And because of that, I have a feeling there will be plenty of talk about the referees' critical decisions in the coming week.


  

First Reaction: Grading the Patriots 2012 Draft

It was no secret that the New England Patriots needed to bolster their defense in the 2012 NFL Draft. That much was expected. But when it comes to the occurrence of the expected, the tale pretty much ends right there. Instead of following the expectation, Bill Belichick pulled some strings and broke his traditional mold, trading up twice to land premiere defensive players in this year's draft.

Jack City and I will break down every team's NFL draft grades in detail, but here is my first reaction to the Patriots' 2012 draft class.

Chandler Jones, DE / Syracuse (First Round, No. 21 Overall)
The Patriots possessed picks No. 27 and 31 in Thursday night's first round, but they played the aggressor this year by packaging third and fourth rounders to move up to No. 21 and 25. At No. 21, Bill Belichick got his guy — defensive end Chandler Jones from Syracuse, brother of UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon "Bones" Jones. Athleticism runs in this family, and Chandler Jones is a freak athlete. His size is desirable for a player that New England will want to use in both the 4-3 DE and the 3-4 OLB positions. His freakishly long arms and strength on the pass rush provide incredible upside. He isn't polished just yet, but the raw talent is absolutely present here. An impressive athlete, to put it lightly. Jones has the potential to become the best pass rusher to come out of this draft. Whether he does or not, it was reassuring to see Belichick jump up six slots to grab a player who may be an elite pass rusher. Isn't this what we've been waiting for? Pick Grade: A- 

Dont'a Hightower, ILB / Alabama (First Round, No. 25 Overall)
I loved the Chandler Jones pick, and I really love the Dont'a Hightower pick. This was the moment where my giddiness as a Patriots fan went through the roof on Thursday night. It was truly a Pats fan's fantasy. Year after year, we see elite names go off the board, the Pats trading down, ultimately grabbing some player from a weak football conference. Grabbing one of the most valuable players on the incredible Alabama Crimson Tide defense is an absolutely brilliant move. Hightower was available at No. 25, and that was way too late for such a good player to be hanging around. Baltimore almost surely would have grabbed him at No. 29, so Belichick saw his chance and slid up six more spots from No. 31 to get the Nick Saban product. Hightower is an extremely dynamic linebacker who can play inside or outside in a number of complex schemes. He is a perfect fit for the Patriots. He played on a championship defense. There is some uncertainty with Chandler Jones along with the tremendous upside. I see very little uncertainty here. Hightower is a stud. He always has been, and he will be in Foxborough. Pick Grade: A

Tavon Wilson, S / Illinois (Second Round, No. 48 Overall)
Who? Who? Tavon Wilson? That was the reaction of most Pats fans — myself included — when Bill Belichick pulled the trigger on a guy who was hardly visible on any draft boards among analysts. Here's the bottom line, though. The analysts don't know what the teams do. Mel Kiper had Vontaze Burfict as one of his best available from about the fourth round forward. Well, there was something the teams didn't like. And on the flip side, there was something that teams liked about Tavon Wilson, who was a rock-solid safety and cornerback for Illinois over his college years. Despite not being invited to the combine, Wilson worked out with seven NFL teams and had private workouts with two of them, including New England. In other words, he was on some teams' radar. How do we know that he wasn't going to be taken in the next five picks? The truth is, we don't. So trust Belichick. He got himself a player with good size (6'0", 203 lbs.) who runs well. He had a clean bill of health throughout his time at Illinois. He is versatile, starting at both safety and corner in the past two seasons. And he has been well documented as doing whatever it takes to help his team. He sounds like a Patriot. We can question the value of this pick at No. 48 — Wilson might have been there in round seven. But we don't know that. I'll say Belichick sensed he might have been taken by another team somewhere along the line, and because of that, he gets a little slack. Pick Grade: B-

Jake Bequette, DE / Arkansas (Third Round, No. 90 Overall)
I've said many times in the past that I wish Belichick would opt for players out of good defensive systems more often than players out of no-name programs. I liked the pick of Jake Bequette out of Arkansas a lot at No. 90. He has the qualities of a Patriot that we always talk about — versatility, team football, extremely high effort, and a love for the game. Bequette finished his career as No. 3 on Arkansas's all-time sacks list. He racked up 10 of those sacks last season, playing in the toughest conference in college football. Getting an SEC defensive lineman late in the third round is fantastic value. That's almost enough value to make up for the questions raised back at No. 48. Getting a high motor player who can put his hand in the dirt in a 4-3 formation or stand up on the edge in a 3-4 is a great pick for the Pats. If Andre Carter doesn't return this year, we might even see Bequette and Jones lining up on each side of this front seven next season. Pick Grade: B+

Nate Ebner, S / Ohio State (Sixth Round, No. 197 Overall)
Again — who? I looked at one summary of Nate Ebner's draft profile, and the first line simply read: Ebner is an elite rugby player. It went on to say that he didn't play football in high school. He walked on to the Ohio State team, becoming a special teams guru. Many have said he was, hands-down, the best special teamer on the Buckeyes. Ebner played just three snaps defensively this past season, but I'll try to look past that fact. 12 years ago, at pick No. 199, we took a guy named Tom Brady with a somewhat unimpressive outlook. This time around, two picks earlier, we take a rugby player. But Nate Ebner is a very motivated kid, a kid who lost his father a few years back. He's a kid who loves throwing his body around and making sacrifices. He lays it all on the line, and one scout described him as a "bat out of hell" on kicks, gunning down the field on a beeline for the returner. He wants to prove people wrong, and Belichick will give him the chance. Pick Grade: B-

Alfonzo Dennard, CB / Nebraska (Seventh Round, No. 224 Overall)
Taking a chance. Trying to hit a home run. Belichick did it twice by trading up in the first round to select high-profile players. And it seems he had the same thing in mind when he moved his fifth-round pick back to Green Bay in exchange for a sixth and two sevenths. He wanted to take a stab at a high-risk, high-reward player. That's Alfonzo Dennard. This is a corner who has second-round talent. He excels in zone schemes. He has the potential to be a big-time cover guy in the secondary. But he was arrested last week for assaulting a cop, and in Nebraska's bowl game against South Carolina in 2011, he was ejected for getting in a fight with receiver Alshon Jeffery. There are definite character issues here, but Dennard worked out with the Patriots and met with Belichick before the draft. Belichick noted that New England investigated the incidents in Dennard's past, and they were "comfortable" taking a chance on him. When you have second-round talent sitting on the board in the seventh round, you take the chance and run with it. If any organization can fix character issues, it's the Patriots. I wanted them to try to grab Janoris Jenkins, and for the same reasons, I love the decision to grab Alfonzo Dennard. This guy could be a major piece in New England's secondary. Pick Grade: A

Jeremy Ebert, WR / Northwestern (Seventh Round, No. 235 Overall)
Ebert isn't a guy who will come in and contribute right now. The Patriots are loaded with bodies at receiver, and it would take some kind of effort for the rookie to break onto the scene over all of the existing targets in Tom Brady's arsenal. But as a slot guy who produced at a high level over the past two seasons, there is some potential here. Ebert may start out on the practice squad, but he could be a future replacement if the Wes Welker era (and the Julian Edelman era, moreover) were to, for whatever reason, come to an end. He can become an NFL slot receiver, but he doesn't address an immediate need. I'm okay with that at No. 235, given that Belichick addressed immediate needs with his previous five selections. Pick Grade: B-

Am I biased for giving out honor roll grades here? Maybe. But if you ask me, this was Belichick's best draft in years. We still got those late-round picks. We still landed some of those no-name guys who Belichick can brag about later, if they work out. But the difference this season is that we landed some big-name difference makers. Difference makers. These guys are going to be impact players on New England's defense, this year. We're not waiting for the future. We see the window closing. Tom Brady and this high-octane offense may only have a few years left of elite-level production. It was time to go big, and that's exactly what the Patriots did this weekend. It's rare that I find myself excited to watch sixth- and seventh-round prospects, but I am. I'm excited to see each and every one of these players in a Patriots uniform. Some of them may not make the squad, but you can guarantee that some of them will. And the ones that do will make an immediate difference. They will bring the New England Patriots one step closer to becoming champions once again. 2012 Patriots Draft Grade: A
          

Jack City's 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Version 3.0

Here's Jack City's third and final NFL Mock Draft before Thursday night's first round of the 2012 NFL Draft.

1.) Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck/QB, Stanford
We know this.

2.) Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams): Robert Griffin lll/QB, Baylor
We know this, too.

3.) Vikings: Morris Claiborne/CB, Louisiana State University
Leslie Frazier came out and told the media that he values playmakers that can score points and change the dimension of a game with a top 5 pick. With this being said the Vikings may be looking past Matt Kalil who prior to this statement was considered a lock in this spot. With this being said, The Vikings have a gaping hole in their secondary, which was put on display first hand when Tim Tebow came into Minnesota and lit up their secondary throwing the ball. We saw in the National Championship that Alabama wouldn’t even throw on Claiborne’s side of the field, as he is glue on coverage, registering 6 picks for a total take back of 173 yards. He is the playmaker on defense Frazier values in a top 5 pick. This pick will certainly shape the direction of the draft, as the Vikings will still strongly consider Kalil and Blackmon at this spot too.
Previous Pick: Matt Kalil/OT, Southern California

NHL Playoffs: Predicting the First Round

It's finally that time of year again. The weather gets warm, the girls wear less clothing, the air conditioning replaces the heat and grill gets fired up. Those are some of the sweet signs that summer is approaching, and the beards that grow uncontrollably on the faces of dedicated men are the signs that intensity is skyrocketing. And for whichever lucky team that hoists the Stanley Cup in June, a mishandled lighter may start a forest fire on the face of their captain. After all, his beard will have been raging for over two months.

If you haven't figured it out, I'm talking about the NHL playoffs. With several outstanding match-ups in Round One, I'll try to pick my winners for each series and give a little explanation to back up the (sometimes bold) prediction. Here we go.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators
Henrik Lundqvist and his crew are simply too good to lose in the first round. The Senators have some talent, and their offensive prowess will steal them a game. But a game is all I see the Sens stealing from John Tortorella and his Rangers. Rangers win in 5 games.

#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals
The Caps scared me for a brief moment when I saw that the B's were matched up against Ovechkin and company. Backstrom coming back healthy could be a huge addition. But when it comes down to it, Zdeno Chara and the rest of his fellow defensemen — and Tim Thomas, for that matter — have always had success shutting down offensively-minded, star-driven teams. That is the Washington Capitals in a nutshell. Bruins win in 5 games.

#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils
Props to the Panthers for winning their division and getting to the playoffs. Good stuff to see Florida becoming a little bit relevant again. But the road ends here. The Devils equaled the Bruins' point total this year. Their division's dominance is the only reason they find themselves in the 6-hole. Not the kind of hole they can't climb out of. Devils win in 6 games.

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers
Most people will consider this to be, without question, the most intriguing first round match-up in the NHL. These two teams have so much hatred boiling between them, their relationship makes the Bruins-Canucks relationship look like a mere bickering married couple. As long as neither side sees a player have his head dislodged from his shoulders, this one will come down to the wire each game. Ultimately, though, the Penguins are too fine-tuned a machine. Penguins win in 6 games.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings
Upset alert! Of course, I pick an upset here in the pure hopes that the Canucks — who, if I haven't mentioned, I despise — will crash and burn after winning another Presidents' Trophy. But on the realistic side, the Kings have a goaltender who can get red-hot at any moment. They have some talent. They have been streaky in the past. It only takes a short streak to make history in the months of April, May and June. Kings win in 7 games.

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks
Another match-up that showcases just how deep the Western Conference is. The Sharks are the seventh seed? San Jose would give just about any team in the East a lot of trouble. Having said that, they can give those Western teams trouble, as well. And they will. But defense wins championships, and the Blues survive. Blues win in 6 games. 

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks
Like I did with the Panthers, I'll give the Coyotes props — they aren't the traditional powerhouse and many are calling for their relocation, but they got themselves to the dance. Anything can happen in these months, but Chicago's experience will give them an edge. Patty Kane's silky mitts cannot be contained easily. Hawks win in 6 games.

#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
The 4-5 match-ups in both conferences are unreal. This is my favorite match-up out west. Just two different styles that will clash for the right to move on. Will it be the skill and possession of the Red Wings or the chippy, defensive game of the Preds that prevails? Nashville has the edge in goal with Pekka Rinne, as good as Jimmy Howard can be. This series is the biggest toss-up to me, but I have to pick someone. Predators win in 7 games.

It's going to be a blast. Let the games begin — and may the odds be ever in your favor!

PS — Appropriate Hunger Games reference or no? I mean the NHL playoffs are kind of like the Hunger Games, right? Vote 1 if you think Katniss should put an arrow through my skull for making that reference. Vote 10 if you think the NHL playoffs are exactly like the Hunger Games and everyone but the victor will suffer excruciating pain and loss.